Monday, March 23, 2015

Some quick thoughts on BioDelivery Sciences International (BDSI) imminent P3 readout

This weekend I did a mini dive into BDSI topical clonidine program. This is not going to be an extensive post (I still have some questions in mind), but since results of a Phase 3 trial are supposed to be announced any time soon, I figured it would be nice to share some thoughts.

BDSI is testing the analgesic effects of a topical clonidine gel in patients affected by painful diabetic neuropathy. Clonidine is an alpha2-adrenergic receptor agonist known for its analgesic effects when administered systemically. Alpha2 receptors are present also on peripheral nociceptive fibers. Activation of these receptors is known to induce analgesia in rodent models (Dogrul 2004). BDSI licensed from Arcion Therapeutics a gel formulation of clonidine for topical use.

What do we know about clonidine topical use in patients? There are a couple of older trials in which clonidine was administered as a transdermal patch (Zeigler 1992; Byas-Smith 1995). These trials did not show consistently significant effects of the drug in reducing pain. However, this is actually positive for BDSI. In fact, transdermal application was not used to affect pain locally but as a way to systemically administer the drug. In other words, the patch was not positioned on the region affected by pain but away from it. The only possible effect for this patch might have been via an increase in the blood concentration of clonidine, and likely the concentration was too low to be too effective centrally.

There are only a handful of papers (a not too quick search turned two papers plus an abstract) on topical application of clonidine in patients and they seem encouraging. Mind you, they are all from the Hopkins group that performed the studies that lead to the clonidine gel. One paper (Davis 1991) is a small proof of concept (few patients) and shows the potential efficacy of topical clonidine in sympathetically maintained pain (a form of chronic pain).

The second paper presents the Phase 2 trial results for the drug currently in Phase 3 (Campbell 2012). The trial featured 179 patients suffering from painful diabetic neuropathy, 89 in the treatment group and 90 placebo (placebo gel). The treatment was a gel of clonidine 0.1%. Notably, the authors explain in the methods the rationale for the dose; previous unpublished data showed that 0.05% was not effective, and 0.2% was not more effective than 0.1%. As a matter of fact, in an abstract presented few years earlier (Campbell 2009) 0.2% appeared less effective than 0.1%. While it is always unpleasant not to see dose-response, the weaker effect of 0.2% might be due to the lower volume of gel, or, in my opinion, to a stronger tolerance for clonidine. Indeed, tolerance development (i.e. progressive loss of effectiveness) is a well-known issue with clonidine, and occurs also with topical administration (Dogrul 2004). After a baseline period, patients entered 12 weeks of treatment. Each day they had to self-administer the gel (three times/day morning, afternoon and evening) and self-report the subjective perception of pain using the numerical pain rating scale (NPRS) once a day. The treatment lasted 12 weeks, and each week patients were assessed at the clinic and rated on a Brief Pain Inventory (BPI) scale. A subset of patients underwent a biopsy in the affected region to quantify nerve fiber density. In addition, all the patients underwent a capsaicin test. 0.1% capsaicin was applied over a 1 cm diameter area on the affected zone. Patients were asked to rate the pain evoked by capsaicin. Biopsy and capsaicin test were used to assess the presence and the function (or hypersensitization) of nociceptive fibers. I am still trying to figure out the consensus on the interpretation of this test, but it seems rational to me.

When the entire population was analyzed, no significant difference (p = 0.07) was seen between clonidine gel and placebo gel. However, a subgroup analysis based on the capsaicin test revealed a more positive picture. Indeed, when only patients with a response to capsaicin were analyzed (i.e., supposedly those with less nerve damage), the treatment appeared significant. For the group showing capsaicin pain equal or greater than 2, the significance reached p < 0.01.  In other words, the idea is that only patients with a less extensive damage to nociceptive fibers are likely to benefit from the topical treatment. In fact, no capsaicin-induced pain might mean excessive damage to nociceptive fibers (or in alternative less sensitive fibers).

The latest result lead to the inclusion of the capsaicin-induced pain test as one of the selection criteria for the ongoing Phase 3 trial. Only patients with at least a pain rating of 2 in response to capsaicin were admitted to the Phase 3.

Top line results for the trial were initially guided for EOY2014, however in the Summer 2014, upon interim analysis, BDSI decided to add 80 patients to the trial. The company stated that they were “encouraged by the outcome of the interim analysis”, but given  double blinding no data, nor statistics were presented .  

In summary, what are the encouraging aspects suggesting a positive readout of P3?
- the rationale for the MOA of topical clonidine is sound and convincing;
- the results from clonidine trials (particularly the subgroup analysis) are overall positive;
- the rationale for the subgroup analysis makes sense (but I need to look more into this);
- the target population can easily be identified using a simple test (capsaicin reactivity);

How about the caveats and the points of concern? Well, here they are:
- 0.1 mg clonidine works best than 0.2 mg clonidine, and I personally never like too much the lack of dose- response data. 
- the trial primary endpoint is change in pain as measured using the NPRS. NPRS records come from daily self-assessment by patients and this can introduce variability.
- similarly, self-administration of the gel can introduce more variability;
- while I have no problem with increasing the n after interim analysis (higher n is a good thing), and while I am not a fan of reading tea leaves in PR, still interim analysis with no mention of stats might raise some concern; [PS: Thanks to @BiotechSage and @Biowreck for pointing out that data were not unblinded to management and so company could not unveil any stat - on the basis of this information, this concern carries much less weight now].

To conclude, I lean toward thinking that BDSI has a good shot at goal with this Phase 3. Definitely, not a slam dunk! Indeed, one needs to clearly consider the risk of a trial whose primary endpoint measure might be rather noisy and affected by placebo, and whose previous interim analysis was defined encouraging, but not disclosed.

Wednesday, March 11, 2015

If science were simple we all would be millionaires (a fuzzy attempt at guessing Pimavanserin P2 in ADP)

 
Acadia (ACAD) is expected to submit the NDA for Pimavanserin in Parkinson’s Disease Psychosis (PDP) soon. Hopefully! (I know the slow NDA submission is raising some questions). Obviously, the regulatory path for Pimavanserin will make 2015 a rather eventful year for Acadia. But there’s another catalyst that will keep  all the eyes pointed to ACAD in the mid term … the much anticipated Pima Phase 2 (P2) trial readout in Alzheimer’s Disease Psychosis (ADP). This is the subject of this post.
  
Is Pimavanserin going to work in ADP? The first instinct might be to think that psychosis is psychosis and whether it is observed in PD or AD shouldn’t matter much. So if Pima works for PDP, why shouldn’t it also work for ADP (or for any other case of psychosis from schizophrenia to Loewy body dementia)? Well, it is not known whether PDP and ADP share similar pathophysiological mechanisms and hence offer similar therapeutic targets.
  
The successful P3 Pimavanserin trial in PDP, demonstrated that selectively (and almost exclusively) targeting the Serotonin 5HT2a receptor is a valid therapeutic approach. Could the same apply to ADP?
  
What do we know about the relationship between ADP and 5HT2a? Here’s a list of links involving 5HT2a in ADP, (some of them featured in papers on Pimavanserin):
  
- EVIDENCE: visual hallucinations, a hallmark of in ADP (and PDP), can also be induced by some 5HT2a agonist [1-2]. CAVEAT: Of course, the fact that some 5HT2a agonists can induce visual hallucination does not imply that there is only a single mechanism for inducing them [2]. In other words, the presence of ADP visual hallucination does not necessarily imply a 5HT2a dysregulation.
  
- EVIDENCE: there is a positive association between polymorphisms for the 5HT2a gene and psychotic symptoms in AD [3]. CAVEAT: This results has been confirmed by a meta-analysis of literature, but some studies failed to find a significant association, suggesting that even if it exists it might not be super strong. In addition, the functional significance of this association is not entirely clear.
  
- EVIDENCE: preclinical work shows that Pimavanserin can be effective in reducing psychotic-like symptoms in a rat model of AD [4]. As a matter of fact, the effects in the AD model are equal or better than those in the rat model of PD [5].  CAVEAT: the predictive value of this rat model of ADP is not entirely clear at the moment (obviously the PDP model did point to a solid effect in PDP).

- atypical antipsychotics have a high affinity not only for dopamine receptors but also 5HT2 receptors [6]. Risperidone, olanzapine and clozapine share this feature. Risperidone, and olanzapine can show some efficacy in reducing psychotic symptoms in AD, however their adverse effects (AEs) offset the potential efficacy and reduces their clinical relevance [7-8]. Some of the AEs of risperidone, and olanzapine in ADP result from D2 antagonism, suggesting that the doses clinically used target both 5HT2a and D2. Hence, it is difficult to attribute the possible efficacy of risperidone, and olanzapine in ADP to 5HT2a antagonism. Clozapine, an antipsychotic widely used for PDP for his lack of motor AEs [9], has not been used much for ADP due to its AEs. Interestingly, risperidone has showed some efficacy also in PDP [9], suggesting that some drugs can work in both conditions.
  
In summary, at this stage it is difficult to determine if selective targeting of 5HT2a receptors could be beneficial in ADP. I do not see any strong evidence either in favor, or against this hypothesis. 
  
So how to behave in the face of this uncertainty? Given the uncertainty, I assume speculations will keep fueling the stock price in anticipation of P2 ADP results, particularly if the regulatory course of Pimavanserin will be smooth. As a matter of fact, approval of Pimavanserin for PDP could be an extremely important step for further understanding its prospects in ADP. Indeed, AEs and safety issues of current antipsychotic therapies will open the door to potential off-label use of Pimavanserin in ADP. If that will happen, the chatter around Pimavanserin will increase, further fueling interest in the results and providing hints (albeit anecdotal) to Pima’s prospects for ADP.
  
Until then, yours truly will continue to look into this issue and try to find a way to guess the outcome of P2.

REFS
[1] Sinforiani E et al - Neurol Sci. 2007 Apr;28(2):96-9.
[2] Rolland B et al - Biomed Res Int. 2014;2014:307106
[3] Ramanathan S, Glatt SJ. - Am J Geriatr Psychiatry. 2009 Oct;17(10):839-46
[4] Price DL et al - Behav Pharmacol. 2012 Aug;23(4):426-33
[5] Price DL et al - Behav Pharmacol. 2011 Oct;22(7):681-92
[6] Meltzer HY et al - J Pharmacol Exp Ther. 1989 Oct;251(1):238-46
[7] Schneider LS et al - N Engl J Med. 2006 Oct 12;355(15):1525-38
[8] Sultzer DL et al - Am J Psychiatry. 2008 Jul;165(7):844-54
[8] Eng ML, Welty TE. - Am J Geriatr Pharmacother. 2010 Aug;8(4):316-30
[9] Ellis T et al - J Neuropsychiatry Clin Neurosci. 2000 Summer;12(3):364-9

Sunday, March 1, 2015

Fame, money and the love of women

WHY A BLOG: According to Freud we write for three basic reasons: desire for fame, money and the love of women. Well maybe hidden deep down there’s all that, but not only. Like most people, I write because writing helps me putting things into focus. It forces me to be intellectually disciplined in framing a problem, a hypothesis, or a perspective. So that’s why I decided to start this public collection of notes. Now that explains the writing, but why making it public? Well, desire for fame, money and the love of women apart I like to share ideas. I occasionally have some sparks and I love to throw them out and let other people play with those. Yes, I do believe in the propagation of ideas. The hope is that I get feedback and kind challenges that get me to see either deeper or newer perspectives. 

WHY BIOTECH:  I am interested in this sector for many reasons. I am a basic scientist and I run a behavioral neurophysiology lab. While most of my work aims at answering basic questions on perception and emotion (the kind of stuff that lends itself more to philosophical musings than startup ideas – and I like it that way because I think at myself as a humanist at heart), I am also interested in practical approaches. Looking at different pre-clinical and clinical programs allows me to keep an eye on how ideas, approaches and technologies shape into therapies. Also, ideas in academia can be inbred and stale, and looking at how biotech companies try to tackle some problems is refreshing to me. Finally, I don’t mind investing. I like to study programs and spot potential opportunities. While I have never been motivated by money in my life choices, I don’t find anything wrong in profiting from good intuition and from clever readings.

So, this is why I decided to share some ideas on biotech, more specifically about approaches to treat diseases of the central nervous system (CNS). My investments, like my readings, extend beyond that (after all as an MD I had to study the whole body), but I will not share ideas that are outside my area of expertise. WHY CNS? First, I feel comfortable sticking to my area of competence, second I think it’s an area of great opportunities. I believe in the next years the sector is going to be propelled by the tremendous progress made in basic neuroscience. New targets, new tools, new diagnostics and new delivery methods will emerge soon as we understand more about the molecular, cellular and circuit bases of diseases.  I will share some of my thoughts on new and groundbreaking approaches, but I will not shy away from analyzing some of the current trials that rely on more traditional approaches.

Some of my posts will be actionable, but nothing of what I will write should be taken as an investment advice. Actually, the only advice you should take is not to buy anything based on what you read on this blog. In the best-case scenario, my writings should be used as a first step in your DD process. For this reason, I’ll share references and emphasize pro and cons of every program.

Ok, that’s it for now with this intro post.  I hope you will find it fun and helpful. Ah by the way, it will be free. I do not plan to make any money out of it. If at some point you’ll find value in my writings, you could express gratitude by donating to the research foundations that I’ll occasionally mention as I cover various diseases.