Wednesday, March 11, 2015

If science were simple we all would be millionaires (a fuzzy attempt at guessing Pimavanserin P2 in ADP)

 
Acadia (ACAD) is expected to submit the NDA for Pimavanserin in Parkinson’s Disease Psychosis (PDP) soon. Hopefully! (I know the slow NDA submission is raising some questions). Obviously, the regulatory path for Pimavanserin will make 2015 a rather eventful year for Acadia. But there’s another catalyst that will keep  all the eyes pointed to ACAD in the mid term … the much anticipated Pima Phase 2 (P2) trial readout in Alzheimer’s Disease Psychosis (ADP). This is the subject of this post.
  
Is Pimavanserin going to work in ADP? The first instinct might be to think that psychosis is psychosis and whether it is observed in PD or AD shouldn’t matter much. So if Pima works for PDP, why shouldn’t it also work for ADP (or for any other case of psychosis from schizophrenia to Loewy body dementia)? Well, it is not known whether PDP and ADP share similar pathophysiological mechanisms and hence offer similar therapeutic targets.
  
The successful P3 Pimavanserin trial in PDP, demonstrated that selectively (and almost exclusively) targeting the Serotonin 5HT2a receptor is a valid therapeutic approach. Could the same apply to ADP?
  
What do we know about the relationship between ADP and 5HT2a? Here’s a list of links involving 5HT2a in ADP, (some of them featured in papers on Pimavanserin):
  
- EVIDENCE: visual hallucinations, a hallmark of in ADP (and PDP), can also be induced by some 5HT2a agonist [1-2]. CAVEAT: Of course, the fact that some 5HT2a agonists can induce visual hallucination does not imply that there is only a single mechanism for inducing them [2]. In other words, the presence of ADP visual hallucination does not necessarily imply a 5HT2a dysregulation.
  
- EVIDENCE: there is a positive association between polymorphisms for the 5HT2a gene and psychotic symptoms in AD [3]. CAVEAT: This results has been confirmed by a meta-analysis of literature, but some studies failed to find a significant association, suggesting that even if it exists it might not be super strong. In addition, the functional significance of this association is not entirely clear.
  
- EVIDENCE: preclinical work shows that Pimavanserin can be effective in reducing psychotic-like symptoms in a rat model of AD [4]. As a matter of fact, the effects in the AD model are equal or better than those in the rat model of PD [5].  CAVEAT: the predictive value of this rat model of ADP is not entirely clear at the moment (obviously the PDP model did point to a solid effect in PDP).

- atypical antipsychotics have a high affinity not only for dopamine receptors but also 5HT2 receptors [6]. Risperidone, olanzapine and clozapine share this feature. Risperidone, and olanzapine can show some efficacy in reducing psychotic symptoms in AD, however their adverse effects (AEs) offset the potential efficacy and reduces their clinical relevance [7-8]. Some of the AEs of risperidone, and olanzapine in ADP result from D2 antagonism, suggesting that the doses clinically used target both 5HT2a and D2. Hence, it is difficult to attribute the possible efficacy of risperidone, and olanzapine in ADP to 5HT2a antagonism. Clozapine, an antipsychotic widely used for PDP for his lack of motor AEs [9], has not been used much for ADP due to its AEs. Interestingly, risperidone has showed some efficacy also in PDP [9], suggesting that some drugs can work in both conditions.
  
In summary, at this stage it is difficult to determine if selective targeting of 5HT2a receptors could be beneficial in ADP. I do not see any strong evidence either in favor, or against this hypothesis. 
  
So how to behave in the face of this uncertainty? Given the uncertainty, I assume speculations will keep fueling the stock price in anticipation of P2 ADP results, particularly if the regulatory course of Pimavanserin will be smooth. As a matter of fact, approval of Pimavanserin for PDP could be an extremely important step for further understanding its prospects in ADP. Indeed, AEs and safety issues of current antipsychotic therapies will open the door to potential off-label use of Pimavanserin in ADP. If that will happen, the chatter around Pimavanserin will increase, further fueling interest in the results and providing hints (albeit anecdotal) to Pima’s prospects for ADP.
  
Until then, yours truly will continue to look into this issue and try to find a way to guess the outcome of P2.

REFS
[1] Sinforiani E et al - Neurol Sci. 2007 Apr;28(2):96-9.
[2] Rolland B et al - Biomed Res Int. 2014;2014:307106
[3] Ramanathan S, Glatt SJ. - Am J Geriatr Psychiatry. 2009 Oct;17(10):839-46
[4] Price DL et al - Behav Pharmacol. 2012 Aug;23(4):426-33
[5] Price DL et al - Behav Pharmacol. 2011 Oct;22(7):681-92
[6] Meltzer HY et al - J Pharmacol Exp Ther. 1989 Oct;251(1):238-46
[7] Schneider LS et al - N Engl J Med. 2006 Oct 12;355(15):1525-38
[8] Sultzer DL et al - Am J Psychiatry. 2008 Jul;165(7):844-54
[8] Eng ML, Welty TE. - Am J Geriatr Pharmacother. 2010 Aug;8(4):316-30
[9] Ellis T et al - J Neuropsychiatry Clin Neurosci. 2000 Summer;12(3):364-9

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